Author Description

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought into sharp focus the challenges of disruption to global value chains (GVCs) for the policy community. In a new era of strategic uncertainty driven by US-China decoupling, trade and supply-chain protectionism, as well as unexpected shocks like the ongoing pandemic, governments and firms alike face new pressures on value chains for industries crucial to both economic competitiveness and national security. This paper examines the key drivers of strategic uncertainty and analyzes the increasing stresses and shifting risks they create. It concludes by prescribing actionable recommendations for both the governments and private sectors of the United States and its allies and partners as they navigate this uncharted territory to secure national security at acceptable economic cost. The report illustrates these new risks via two real-world case studies: the ROK-Japan trade dispute and its impact on semiconductor value chains, and the worldwide supply-chain disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.