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"Presidential campaigns do matter for the outcome of elections. The effects of presidential campaigns are systematic and predictable." "These arguments, based on careful analysis of campaigns and previous studies of them, refute the common wisdom of political scientists that campaigns do not matter and the implied belief of journalists, evidenced in their reporting every four years, that little else matters.". "James E. Campbell offers "the theory of the predictable campaign," incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions."--BOOK JACKET.