Author Description

This Paper Estimates A Speculative Attack Model Of Currency Crises In Order To Identify The Role Of Economic Fundamentals And Any Early Warning Signals Of A Potential Currency Crisis. The Data From The Mexican Economy Was Used To Illustrate The Model. Based On The Results, A Deterioration In Fundamentals Appears To Have Generated High One-step-ahead Probabilities For The Regime Changes During The Sample Period 1982-1994. Particularly, Increases In Inflation Differentials, Appreciations Of The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Reserve Losses, Expansionary Monetary And Fiscal Policies, And Increases In The Share Of Short-term Foreign Currency Debt Appear To Have Contributed To The Market Pressures And Regime Changes In That Period. Inci Ötker, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. Bibliographic Level Mode Of Issuance: Monograph English