
Brexit was originally scheduled to occur on March 29, 2019. In early 2019 Parliament rejected the withdrawal agreement negotiated between Prime Minister Theresa May's government and the EU without supporting any alternative. Given continued political deadlock over Brexit in the UK, the EU has granted the UK three deadline extensions. The most recent extension lasts until January 31, 2020. Recent Developments and Possible Scenarios On October 17, 2019, EU and UK negotiators reached a new withdrawal agreement altering the Northern Ireland backstop provision, which was a main sticking point to Parliament passing the original deal. Under the new deal, Northern Ireland (part of the UK) would maintain regulatory alignment with the EU (essentially creating a customs border in the Irish Sea) to maintain an open border with the Republic of Ireland (an EU member state) while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market. At the end of a transition period, the UK (including Northern Ireland) would leave the EU customs union and pursue an independent national trade policy. The UK and EU have sought to avoid a no-deal Brexit, a scenario in which the UK leaves the EU without a negotiated withdrawal agreement, due to concerns that it could cause considerable disruption with regard to the economy, trade, security, Northern Ireland, and other issues. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson encountered difficulties in attempting to secure Parliament's approval of the new deal, however. Seeking to break the deadlock, the UK Parliament agreed to set an early general election for December 12, 2019. The dynamics of Brexit are likely to evolve in relation to the election's outcome. Possible scenarios include Parliament approving the new withdrawal agreement by the January deadline; a new government shifting to a soft Brexit, in which the UK remains in the EU customs union; continued political deadlock; another extension; and a no-deal Brexit. Brexit, Trade, and Economic Impact The various Brexit
Page Count:
38
Publication Date:
2019-11-03
ISBN-10:
1705359884
ISBN-13:
9781705359884
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