Author Description

Future demand for shorter-range airline trips is unstable, affected by changes in technology as well as consumer preferences. Through application of new research tools that support scenario analysis, the TRB Airport Cooperative Research Program's ACRP Research Report 204: Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile explores the potential effects of evolving automobile and aircraft technology and shifting consumer preferences on demand for shorter-range air trips. While previous methods of demand forecasting have tended to see aviation in a vacuum relative to its key domestic competitor, the automobile, the analytic framework presented in this report facilitates comparison of the two competing modes under changing technology and demographic conditions as well as consumer choice. The report is designed to help managers of smaller airports develop a better understanding of how consumers choose between flying out of a smaller hometown airport to connect to a flight at a larger airport and taking a longer automobile drive, bypassing the smaller airport, to fly directly from a larger airport. Also see the accompanying ACRP Web-Only Document 38: Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile.