Author Description
The Improbable War Explains Why Conflict Between The Usa And China Cannot Be Ruled Out. In 1914 War Between The Great Powers Was Considered Unlikely, Yet It Happened. We Learn Only From History, And Popular Though The First World War Analogy Is, The Lessons We Draw From Its Outbreak Are Usually Mistaken. Among These Errors Is The Tendency To Over-estimate Human Rationality. All Major Conflicts Of The Past 300 Years Have Been About The Norms And Rules Of The International System. In China And The Us The World Confronts Two 'exceptional' Powers Whose Values Differ Markedly, With China Bidding To Challenge The Current Order. The 'thucydidean Trap' - When A Conservative Status Quo Power Confronts A Rising New One - May Also Play Its Part In Precipitating Hostilities. To Avoid Stumbling Into An Avoidable War Both Beijing And Washington Need A Coherent Strategy, Which Neither Of Them Has. History Also Reveals That War Evolves Continually. The Next Global Conflict Is Likely To Be Played Out In Cyberspace And Outer Space And Like All Previous Wars It Will Have Devastating Consequences. Such A War Between The United States And China May Seem Improbable, But It Is All Too Possible, Which Is Why We Need To Discuss It Now.
Menrva's Summary
THE THESIS
This book investigates the conditions under which a conflict between the United States and China could occur, challenging the assumption that such a war is impossible. Christopher Coker, a professor of international relations, utilizes historical analysis of the last 300 years to argue that international conflicts are fundamentally driven by disputes over global norms and rules. He posits that the lack of coherent strategies in both Beijing and Washington, combined with the 'Thucydidean Trap' and the evolution of warfare into cyber and space domains, creates a volatile environment that necessitates urgent strategic discussion.
THE SCOPE MAP
What You Will Find
- Historical analysis of the origins of the First World War and its relevance to modern tensions
- Examination of the 'Thucydidean Trap' as a framework for great power competition
- Discussion on the shifting nature of warfare into cyberspace and outer space
- Evaluation of the ideological differences between the US and China
Scope Limits
- The book does not provide a specific predictive timeline for potential hostilities
- It does not offer a detailed policy blueprint or diplomatic roadmap for conflict resolution
THE AUTHORITY PERSPECTIVE
Experts note that the text provides a sobering look at the limitations of human rationality in international diplomacy. Readers frequently highlight the author's ability to synthesize historical patterns with contemporary technological threats to create a compelling argument for strategic vigilance.
Page Count:
256
Publication Date:
2014-01-01
ISBN-10:
0190257318
ISBN-13:
9780190257316
China
Military History
United States
International relations
Geopolitics