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The European Commission publishes twice-yearly comprehensive macro-economic forecasts. In its spring 2009 economic forecast, the Commission discusses the economic situation and outlook for the euro area and the EU, its 27 Member States, the Candidate Countries as well as EU's main economic partners. The European economy is midst of its most severe recession since World War II caused in particular by the worsening of the global financial crisis, the sharp contraction in world trade and ongoing housing market corrections in some economies. In the Commission's spring forecast, GDP in the European Union is projected to fall by 4% this year and to broadly stabilise in 2010. However, as financial markets stabilise, investor confidence improves and both fiscal support and monetary easing gradually feeds through to real activity, the fall in GDP is set to level off towards the end of this year and growth rates should turn modestly positive during 2010. All Member States are affected by the downturn, although their prospects vary depending on their relative exposure to the different stocks. The downswing is affecting not only all Member States but also almost all demand components and sectors. Labour markets will be severely affected, with the unemployment rate expected to increase to 11% in the EU in 2010 and with employment forecast to contract by about 21⁄2% in the EU this year and by a further 11⁄2% in 2010. Public finances are also being hit hard, with the budget deficit set to more than double this year in the EU (to 6% of GDP) and to increase further in 2010 (to 71⁄4%), reflecting both the slowdown and the discretionary measures taken to support the economy, in line with the European Recovery Plan proposed by the Commission. Inflation continues to ease this year before gradually picking up next year.