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Ornamental horticultural products are taxed at a reduced VAT rate in the Netherlands (9% rather than 21%) as well as in 14 other EU countries. Increasing VAT would have a negative impact on turnover and employment in the supply chain. These calculations show that a VAT increase in the Netherlands would lead to a loss of around €200 million in turnover in the ornamentals sector at wholesale prices (-1.6%). If VAT were to be increased in other EU countries too, this would have a particularly significant impact on the Netherlands’ exports and thus on primary production. In this scenario, the drop in turnover for the ornamentals sector (at wholesale prices) would be €930 million (-7%). The expected impact on the government’s VAT revenue would be partly offset by fewer flowers and plants being bought, and in the shorter term by a decline in tax receipts and social insurance premiums from businesses and employees, along with an increase in unemployment benefits being paid out.