Author Description

The United States spent over $400 billion dollars on national defense in 2005. Even with support for the war on terrorism still strong, it is doubtful that the U.S. can sustain such a level of defense investment. One strategy to offset the increasing burden of defense spending is to divest the procurement and/or sustainment of individual defense capabilities to allied nations. The decision to divest any capability, however, introduces risk. This thesis presents a methodology to quantify the risk of the decision to divest a military capability to an allied nation, where risk is defined as the set of risk scenarios, likelihoods and consequences possible under each decision alternative. Risk scenarios are composed of combinations of contingencies that require the capability considered for divestiture. The likelihood of each risk scenario is calculated as the product of the likelihoods of its constituent contingency events. The consequence of each risk scenario is calculated as the sum of the consequences of its constituent contingency events. Once the risk of each decision alternative is quantified this information can be used to rank alternatives and identify the scenarios that contribute most to the risk of each alternative. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, th